Understanding the commodity derivatives exchange industry may seem a bit tricky, but in this landscape, the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) holds a significant position. As we dive into the world of MCX’s share price, we embark on a journey through the ups and downs of business.
Commodity prices and market dynamics play a pivotal role, and predicting share prices can be challenging. In this article, we’ll explore the factors that influence MCX’s share price and try to make sense of where it might be headed. Join us as we uncover the story behind MCX’s share price in the ever-changing world of business.
About MCX India Ltd.
MCX’s primary role is to facilitate online trading of commodity derivatives transactions. It provides a platform for price discovery and risk management in the commodities market.
The company has a 100% market share in precious metals, energy, and base metals, except for agri-commodities, where it maintains a 22.2% share.
In terms of trading activity, MCX has expanded its offerings by launching MCX India Commodity Indices and securing approval for futures contracts on indices like the MCX iCOMDEX Bullion and Base Metal Indices. The exchange has a global presence as a full member of the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE).
In terms of warehousing, MCX operates warehouses in various locations, including Thane, Raipur, Chennai, Kolkata, and the National Capital Region (NCR).
Despite its strong position, MCX faces competition from the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), which entered the commodity derivatives market in 2018, aiming to expand its commodity trading offerings.
Multi Commodity Exchange Of India Q2 FY24 Overview
- Multi Commodity Exchange Of India reported Q2 FY24 results on Nov 8, 2023, with a notable 29.6% YoY increase in revenue but a reported loss of ₹19.07Cr, a stark contrast to the ₹63.27Cr profit in the same period last year.
- In the quarterly comparison, revenue saw a 13.27% growth, but selling, general & administrative expenses also rose by 7.56% q-o-q.
- The operating income showed a significant decline, down by 654.56% q-o-q and 158.94% Y-o-Y.
- Earnings per Share (EPS) for Q2 FY24 stands at ₹-3.74, reflecting a substantial 130.09% Y-o-Y decrease.
- Multi Commodity Exchange Of India demonstrated market resilience, delivering a 2.05% return in the last week, an impressive 80.48% return in the last 6 months, and a solid 59.27% YTD return.
- The company currently holds a market cap of ₹12,599.97 Cr, with a 52-week high/low at ₹2,666 & ₹1,285.05 respectively.
- Analyst sentiment, as of Nov 11, 2023, reveals 2 Sell, 3 Hold, 3 Buy, and 1 Strong Buy ratings. The consensus recommendation is to Hold.
| When | Maximum Price | Minimum Price |
| November 2023 | ₹3,161.16 | ₹2,748.83 |
| December 2023 | ₹3,265.48 | ₹2,839.55 |
As of November 2023, the share price target for Multi Commodity Exchange Of India (MCX India) indicates a potential range. The maximum price is projected to be ₹3,161.16, while the minimum is anticipated at ₹2,748.83 for the month. Looking ahead to December 2023, the share price target is expected to fluctuate between ₹3,265.48 and ₹2,839.55.
The company’s market capitalization stands at ₹14,929 Cr. As of November 26, 2023, the current share price is ₹2,927. These projections provide investors with insights into potential price movements, allowing for strategic decision-making based on market expectations.
| When | Maximum Price | Minimum Price |
| January 2024 | ₹3,332.12 | ₹2,897.50 |
| February 2024 | ₹3,400.12 | ₹2,956.63 |
| March 2024 | ₹3,469.51 | ₹3,016.97 |
| April 2024 | ₹3,368.46 | ₹2,929.10 |
| May 2024 | ₹3,318.68 | ₹2,885.81 |
| June 2024 | ₹3,438.15 | ₹2,989.70 |
| July 2024 | ₹3,403.77 | ₹2,959.80 |
| August 2024 | ₹3,539.92 | ₹3,078.19 |
| September 2024 | ₹3,681.52 | ₹3,201.32 |
| October 2024 | ₹3,609.33 | ₹3,138.55 |
| November 2024 | ₹3,717.61 | ₹3,232.71 |
| December 2024 | ₹3,810.55 | ₹3,313.52 |
In the anticipated trajectory for MCX India’s share price in 2024, investors can expect dynamic movements.
January kicks off with a range between ₹2,897.50 and ₹3,332.12, followed by a gradual increase leading to December 2024, where the share price is projected to reach ₹3,810.55 at its maximum and ₹3,313.52 at its minimum.
The progressive incline in these figures reflects an optimistic outlook on the company’s performance, presenting potential opportunities for investors. It’s important for stakeholders to closely monitor market dynamics and company developments as they navigate through the evolving landscape of MCX India’s share valuation.
| When | Maximum Price | Minimum Price |
| January 2025 | ₹3,886.76 | ₹2,989.82 |
| February 2025 | ₹3,986.42 | ₹3,066.48 |
| March 2025 | ₹4,141.89 | ₹3,186.07 |
| April 2025 | ₹4,060.68 | ₹3,123.60 |
| May 2025 | ₹3,942.41 | ₹3,032.62 |
| June 2025 | ₹4,119.82 | ₹3,169.09 |
| July 2025 | ₹4,039.04 | ₹3,106.95 |
| August 2025 | ₹4,163.95 | ₹3,203.04 |
| September 2025 | ₹4,309.69 | ₹3,315.15 |
| October 2025 | ₹4,421.74 | ₹3,401.34 |
| November 2025 | ₹4,532.29 | ₹3,486.38 |
| December 2025 | ₹4,645.60 | ₹3,573.53 |
In the envisioned trajectory for MCX India Ltd.’s share price in 2025, a discernible upward trend emerges, presenting promising prospects for investors. Commencing in January with a range spanning from ₹2,989.82 to ₹3,886.76, the share price is anticipated to witness gradual increments throughout the year.
From February to December, the projections reveal a steady rise, reaching a pinnacle of ₹4,645.60 and a floor of ₹3,573.53 by December 2025. This sanguine forecast underscores an optimistic market sentiment, likely influenced by the company’s financial performance, industry dynamics, and broader economic factors. Investors are advised to maintain vigilance in response to evolving market conditions and corporate developments, leveraging these projected financial metrics to inform strategic decision-making and portfolio management in the upcoming year.
| Year | Maximum Price | Minimum Price |
| 2026 | ₹4,877.88 | ₹3,414.51 |
| 2027 | ₹5,365.66 | ₹3,755.96 |
| 2028 | ₹7,511.93 | ₹3,755.96 |
| 2029 | ₹6,503.83 | ₹3,251.92 |
| 2030 | ₹8,454.98 | ₹5,918.49 |
In the forecasted trajectory for MCX India’s share price from 2026 to 2030, a dynamic scenario unfolds, marked by fluctuating maximum and minimum price points. Commencing in 2026, the projected range extends from ₹3,414.51 to ₹4,877.88, signaling potential growth opportunities.
The subsequent years continue to portray a positive outlook, with 2027 anticipating a range between ₹3,755.96 and ₹5,365.66. Notably, 2028 witnessed a substantial surge, reaching a maximum of ₹7,511.93 and a minimum of ₹3,755.96.
The year 2029 presents a range from ₹3,251.92 to ₹6,503.83, while 2030 displays a potentially significant growth, ranging from ₹5,918.49 to ₹8,454.98. These projections provide valuable insights for investors, suggesting an optimistic trajectory for MCX India’s share price over the next five years, influenced by market dynamics, industry trends, and the company’s financial performance. Investors are advised to carefully consider these forecasts for informed decision-making and strategic portfolio management.
MCX India Financial Condition: Last 5 Years
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | |
| Sales + (In Crore INR) |
300 | 398 | 391 | 367 | 514 |
| Expenses + (In Crore INR) |
206 | 219 | 205 | 206 | 369 |
| Operating Profit (In Crore INR) |
94 | 178 | 185 | 161 | 145 |
| OPM % | 31% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 28% |
| Other Income + (In Crore INR) |
75 | 105 | 104 | 46 | 68 |
| Interest (In Crore INR) |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Depreciation (In Crore INR) |
15 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 22 |
| Profit before tax (In Crore INR) |
154 | 265 | 267 | 184 | 191 |
| Tax % | 5% | 11% | 16% | 22% | 22% |
| Net Profit + (In Crore INR) |
146 | 236 | 225 | 143 | 149 |
| EPS in Rs | 28.68 | 46.37 | 44.16 | 28.13 | 29.21 |
| Dividend Payout % | 70% | 65% | 62% | 62% | 65% |
Looking at the financial condition of this company over the five-year period from March 2019 to March 2023, several key trends emerge.
The company’s sales have shown an overall upward trend, peaking at ₹514 in March 2023. However, expenses have also risen, with a significant increase from March 2022 to March 2023, mainly in operating costs. The company has generated additional income from sources other than its core operations, remaining relatively stable over these years.
The tax rate gradually increased from 5% in March 2019 to 22% in March 2022 before remaining consistent in March 2023. The net profit exhibited some volatility but generally remained positive, with the highest figure of ₹236 in March 2020.
In summary, the company has experienced fluctuations in its financial performance over the five-year period, with varying levels of profitability and operational efficiency. Despite challenges, it has maintained profitability and rewarded shareholders with dividends. However, it may need to address the decline in operating profit margin to ensure long-term financial stability and growth.
HDFC Securities recommends purchasing Multi Commodity Exchange of India with a target price of Rs 2400. (As of Sep 29, 2023)
FAQS
What Is the Current Market Cap Value of MCX Company?
The current market capitalization of MCX company is ₹14,929 Cr.
Based on the provided information, the share price target for MCX by the end of 2025 can be estimated by taking into account the highest expected price in December 2025, which is ₹4,645.60, and the lowest projected price in January 2025, which is ₹3,123.60.
What Is The Return On Equity For The Last Year?
For the last year ROE was 10%, a percentage less from the previous year.
What is MCX’s Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E ratio)?
The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for MCX stock is reported at a relatively high value of 333, while the median PE ratio is 35.8.
What Are Some Potential Risks Associated With Investing In MCX’s Stock?
Investing in MCX’s stock carries risks, including market volatility, commodity price fluctuations, and regulatory changes. Competition, economic factors, and liquidity risk are also considerations.
Is MCX in debt?
The company is almost debt-free.
Also read:
Should One Invest In MCX India Ltd in 2023?
In 2023, right now, in our opinion, MCX shares could be overvalued. Currently, it is trading near its ATH of Rs. 2,927.
Considering the company’s financial performance and the data provided, there are several positive aspects that may make it an attractive investment opportunity. However, there are some points that I do not like about MCX India.
Firstly, the company has demonstrated steady sales growth over the past five years, indicating a healthy demand for its products or services. The 5 years compounded growth in revenue is around 15%. This consistent revenue growth is a positive sign for potential investors as it suggests the company’s ability to capture market share. However, if we see the compounded revenue growth in the last 3 years, we can see growth of 9%. If we talk about the profit, there has been compounded negative growth of 6% in the last 3 years. I think the numbers are bound to be better in the near quarters.
Secondly, the company’s virtually debt-free status is reassuring, as it implies financial stability and lower risk associated with debt obligations. Moreover, the company’s commitment to maintaining a robust dividend payout of 65% is appealing for income-focused investors, offering a regular income stream.
Additionally, the anticipation of a good quarter suggests that the company is well-positioned to perform positively in the short term, potentially providing opportunities for investors seeking short-term gains.
While the company does rely on other income sources, it has consistently contributed to its earnings. This diversification of income streams can contribute positively to overall profitability.
It is just that the PE is around 333, which signifies overvaluation. Investors who are investing at the current price should take note, that the price may drop by 20-30% or more, and it could then be a good time to add MCX to their portfolio. At the current price, this may not be a good idea to add for short term. Long term, it could definitely be a wise option.
It’s important to acknowledge the company’s lower return on equity (ROE) and the premium valuation, which may limit long-term growth potential. Therefore, potential investors should carefully align their investment goals, considering both short-term and long-term prospects. Seeking guidance from a financial advisor is advisable to make a well-informed investment decision.
What did we learn?
- 1 About MCX India Ltd.
- 2 Multi Commodity Exchange Of India Q2 FY24 Overview
- 3 MCX India Share Price Target 2023 To 2030
- 4 MCX India Financial Condition: Last 5 Years
- 5 HDFC Securities On MCX India Share Price Target
- 6 FAQS
- 6.1 What Is the Current Market Cap Value of MCX Company?
- 6.2 What Is The Share Price Target For MCX By The End Of 2025?
- 6.3 What Is The Return On Equity For The Last Year?
- 6.4 What is MCX’s Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E ratio)?
- 6.5 What Are Some Potential Risks Associated With Investing In MCX’s Stock?
- 6.6 Is MCX in debt?
- 7 Should One Invest In MCX India Ltd in 2023?
